This article is based on the Digital Decade White Paper released at COMDEX 2002 in conjunction with the keynote speech delivered by Bill Gates, Microsoft Chairman and Chief Software Architect.
The personal computer undoubtedly has had a huge impact on our world in the past quarter century.
Yet the PC has not reached the same level of importance to most people as other technological revolutions. Most people could survive without a computer—could they get along without their car or telephone?
Microsoft believes that by the end of this decade—a time that Bill Gates calls the Digital Decade—that PCs will grow in importance and start to play an indispensable part in the lives of most people. By the end of this decade, few would want to live without one.
This Digital Decade vision is a core set of principles that drive the company's ongoing products, services, and research efforts.
From Personal Computers to Personal Computing
In these early years of the Digital Decade, we've seen the computer technology move from the desktop to power a wide range of devices that surround us and make computing truly personal.
The intelligence of the PC has found its way into more and more devices, from personal gadgets such as pagers, to mobile phones, to PDAs. Many people do not leave home without at least one of these.
In the living room, game consoles like Microsoft® Xbox™ are becoming as powerful as PCs, with local hard drives, broadband Internet connections, and rich digital media capabilities.
Powerful computer technology is finding its way in the car. Microsoft .NET-connected car technology will offer car owners the same type of technology they have at home and work.
Similarly, wireless networking technologies such as 802.11b (Wi-Fi) are becoming more commonplace in homes, offices, and public spaces such as airports and coffee shops. The reach of the Internet has moved far beyond the desktop.
By the close of the Digital Decade, these technologies will converge to make computing a seamless and pervasive experience.
Computers Will Better Adapt to Users
During much of the last 25 years, the typical person had to learn to adapt to the computer, usually by sitting down at the PC and interacting through the keyboard and mouse.
This will change dramatically during the Digital Decade with ongoing advances in hardware and software—computers will begin to adapt to people's needs. Computers such as the Tablet PC make handwriting a more viable way to interact with a computer, and Microsoft researchers are working on further innovations that will enable people to interact with computers in even more natural ways, using voice commands or gestures.
Transforming from "Brain Machines" to "Heart Machines"
Not too long ago, most people thought about computers as "brain" machines—powerful machines that could store large amounts of data and crunch numbers fast. The rise of the Internet changed that perception. Computers now are connected to the social and emotional aspects of life. People now use their PCs to exchange e-mail and instant messages with friends and family. Virtual communities and social groups have emerged to connect people around the world with similar interests.
At the same time, people are using computers for day-to-day organization and collaboration with other people. As the Digital Decade progresses, people will increasingly use computers to help organize their lives. For example, parents may soon find it easy to coordinate carpooling to their children's sports game as well as the post-game snack schedule with the help of wireless devices. This kind of coordination is already possible today for technophiles, but it will soon be simple and efficient for everyone.
Sharing Digital Fun with Friends and Family
The tremendous growth in digital music and photography shows that people are very interested in the entertainment and creative potential of computer technology. Family members routinely use e-mail to share photos of the latest family gathering. Gamers meet online to play against old and new friends.
This trend will continue during the Digital Decade, as more devices become capable of storing and sharing even greater amounts of entertainment. Computing is increasingly moving toward the center of our personal entertainment experiences.
The Rewired Economy
The business world was the first to realize the potential of the PC for managing information and working with documents—now, computing is beginning to have a fundamental impact on the way we do business, and on our economy at large.
In the coming years, the combination of new computer hardware, better communication tools, and interconnected Web services will continue to transform the way information workers do their jobs—and by extension change the way companies do business.
At the same time, the shift from telephone, fax, and paper-based transactions between businesses to direct computer-to-computer interaction will fundamentally transform business models and create new opportunities for businesses of all sizes. Entrepreneurs will be able to build the same kinds of complex supply chains and supplier relationships that only large companies can afford today. XML Web services are the technology that makes these trends "real"—and thanks to innovations such as Microsoft .NET, everything from smart handheld devices to the largest servers will know how to use Web services.
The Challenge of Helping People Realize Their Potential
The dramatic growth in processor power, disk capacity, and network capacity will lead to computers and smart devices that are hundreds of times more powerful than the PCs of today. We can only begin to imagine what kinds of uses we will find for this computing power.
But it's important to remember that technology is still out of reach for many who need it most. Bridging the digital divide and fully realizing the potential of computing technology will be one of the biggest challenges of the Digital Decade. Industry outreach combined with more advanced, less costly software and hardware could extend technology's reach beyond the wealthy elite and early adopters using it today.
What Comes After the Digital Decade?
The years 2010–2020 will be a time when computers more or less disappear—in the sense that they will be so deeply woven into everything we do that we will barely even think about them.
