Exploring Microsoft Future of Work Scenarios
Exhibit 6: Frontier Friction
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Frontier Friction emerges in the wake of a catastrophic attack on the networks that form the bedrock of our technology infrastructure. The far-reaching consequences of an attack on, for instance, the financial sector, causes people to lose confidence in the industries that have turned their money and their lives into the binary language of ones and zeros. A new awareness of the vulnerability of these systems generates a general pushback against technology. Over a very short period of time, confidence in the old order collapses and authority devolves to regional governments, communities, religious sects, and emergent and traditional clan and tribal affiliations. This is a problematic scenario for business. Companies must create and enforce their own security policies and operate in an environment of low trust among employees, customers, and partners. Supply chains are fragmentary if they exist at all, and much of the economy becomes localized with networks of communities interrelating at the near-local level.
Some additional characteristics of this scenario include:
• Power and influence seep away from hierarchical institutions and corporations as the old rules stop working and citizens tear down working institutions in favor of continuity.
• Facing a dynamic and dangerous world, people focus on communities and relationships to foster a sense of belonging; this gives rise to religious and ideological fundamentalism as well as new “swarm” models of communities that assemble and congregate based on current needs rather than long-term thinking.
• Privately funded nonprofits and nongovernmental agencies step in to fill many of the functions once performed by governments now starved of resources and crippled by corruption.
• The distrust of centralized political or social entities heightens the importance of individual security and individual validation of truth.
• Individuals see a need for multiple aliases as they navigate across tribal boundaries while simultaneously demanding stringent background checks for new entrants to a community.
• Burgeoning youth populations in the world’s poorest countries and among the world’s most insular religious sects generate increasing intolerance, social disorder, and violence. Job skills decline among younger people, and many industries are threatened with serious labor shortages.
• The maintenance of older products becomes equally as lucrative as shipping new products as the adoption rate of innovation crawls and people reuse and reapply existing technologies and tools to new problems.
• The ability to move between networks and make new partnerships is crucial as local resources are often very scarce and insufficient to meet needs.
• Translation skills — at every level and in every way — are at a premium as the fragmentation of the world creates new social and cultural communities. As these communities evolve independent systems, even languages, people who can navigate cultural, linguistic, and information boundaries are in high demand.
• Information distrust is very high, leading to much missed information, which further enhances ignorance and reinforces insular behavior.
• Home schooling and religious schools dominate the educational environment.
• Community-oriented reputation systems that work from very trusted sources are one of the few community applications that emerge as valuable to the new, isolated communities.
