Abstract

We conduct field and laboratory experiments on the same panel of experts, measuring the internal consistency of their predictions 1) in the field, in their domain of expertise, and 2) on a conceptually identical laboratory exercise. Experts make internally consistent predictions in the field, both in absolute terms and relative to a panel of novices, but they exhibit markedly less consistency on the isomorphic lab exercise. Possible explanations for this fading expertise include low motivation in the lab and a failure to transfer skills learned implicitly in the field to the more abstract lab setting.

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