The last several years have seen a proliferation of static and runtime analysis tools for ﬁnding security violations that are caused by explicit information ﬂow in programs. Much of this interest has been caused by the increase in the number of vulnerabilities such as cross-site scripting and SQL injections. In fact, these explicit information ﬂow vulnerabilities commonly found in Web applications now outnumber vulnerabilities such as buﬀer overruns common in type-unsafe languages such as C and C++. Tools checking for these vulnerabilities require a speciﬁcation to operate. In most cases the task of providing such a speciﬁcation is delegated to the user. Moreover, the eﬃcacy of these tools is only as good as the speciﬁcation. Unfortunately, writing a comprehensive speciﬁcation presents a major challenge: parts of the speciﬁcation are easy to miss leading to missed vulnerabilities; similarly, incorrect speciﬁcations may lead to false positives. This paper proposes Merlin, a new algorithm for automatically inferring explicit information ﬂow speciﬁcations from program code. Such speciﬁcations greatly reduce manual labor, and enhance the quality of results, while using tools that check for security violations caused by explicit information ﬂow. Beginning with a data propagation graph, which represents interprocedural ﬂow of information in the program, Merlin aims to automatically infer an information ﬂow speciﬁcation. Merlin models information ﬂow paths in the propagation graph using probabilistic constraints. A naıve modeling requires an exponential number of constraints, one per path in the propagation graph. For scalability, we approximate these path constraints using constraints on chosen triples of nodes, resulting in a cubic number of constraints. We characterize this approximation as a probabilistic abstraction, using the theory of probabilistic reﬁnement developed by McIver and Morgan. We solve the resulting system of probabilistic constraints using factor graphs, which are a well-known structure for performing probabilistic inference. We experimentally validate the Merlin approach by applying it to 10 large business-critical Web applications that have been analyzed with Cat.Net, a state-of-the-art static analysis tool for .NET. We ﬁnd a total of 167 new conﬁrmed speciﬁcations, which result in a total of 302 additional vulnerabilities across the 10 benchmarks. More accurate speciﬁcations also reduce the false positive rate: in our experiments, Merlin-inferred speciﬁcations result in 13 false positives being removed; this constitutes a 15% reduction in the Cat.Net false positive rate on these 10 programs. The ﬁnal false positive rate for Cat.Net after applying Merlin in our experiments drops to under 1%.