The minimum criteria a population model should meet in order to aid
in the making of non detriment findings (NDFs) should be a demonstrable
ability to predict changes to the population size following
actual harvesting regimes to a desired level of accuracy. This case study
outlines how population models could be developed and used to aid
in making NDFs for G. elwesii, the Turkish Giant Snowdrop. This taxon
is particularly suited to developing such a quantitative framework
because the populations are visited annually (facilitating data collection),
they appear to have relatively stable abundances (suggesting
relatively low stochasticity), and annual collections of relatively large
quantities for international trade is likely to continue to for the foreseeable
future. Furthermore, the establishment of such a quantitative
framework will be a valuable example for those wishing to develop a
similar system for other CITES taxa.