Indicator-based investing is a popular investment strategy driven by technical analysis for the stock market, the key issue of which is to construct portfolios from technical indicators. Due to the high volatility and non-stationary of the stock market, the effectiveness of an indicator, however, varies largely across different periods, which has made it necessary to dynamically adjust indicator-based investing. In this paper, we propose a confidence-based calibration approach for dynamic portfolio construction. The major intuition behind is to tune a more concentrated portfolio when the indicator yields higher confidence otherwise a relatively equal-weighted one. To seek a maximized long-term profit, we further propose to integrate learning the confidence (i.e., future effectiveness) of an indicator into a unified portfolio construction approach powered by a recurrent reinforcement learning framework. Compared with the traditional indicator investing strategies, our confidence-based calibrated indicator of investing can obtain significantly higher returns with lower risks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Indicator-based investing is a popular investment strategy driven by technical analysis for the stock market, the key issue of which is to construct portfolios from technical indicators. Due to the high volatility and non-stationary of the stock market, the effectiveness of an indicator, however, varies largely across different periods, which has made it necessary to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":null,"msr_publishername":"","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"","msr_number":"","msr_organization":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_page_range_start":"","msr_page_range_end":"","msr_series":"","msr_volume":"","msr_copyright":"","msr_conference_name":"2019 IEEE Global Conference on Signal and Information Processing (GlobalSIP)","msr_doi":"","msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_mag_id":"","msr_pubmed_id":"","msr_other_authors":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_award":"","msr_affiliation":"","msr_institution":"","msr_host":"","msr_version":"","msr_duration":"","msr_original_fields_of_study":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_s2_match_type":"","msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_published_date":"2019-11-11","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_notes":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_publicationurl":"","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_conference_url":"","msr_journal_url":"","msr_s2_pdf_url":"","msr_year":0,"msr_citation_count":0,"msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":0,"msr_s2_match_confidence":0,"msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":true,"msr_s2_open_access":false,"msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_pub_ids":[],"msr_hide_image_in_river":0,"footnotes":""},"msr-research-highlight":[],"research-area":[13556],"msr-publication-type":[193716],"msr-publisher":[],"msr-focus-area":[],"msr-locale":[268875],"msr-post-option":[],"msr-field-of-study":[],"msr-conference":[],"msr-journal":[],"msr-impact-theme":[],"msr-pillar":[],"class_list":["post-815647","msr-research-item","type-msr-research-item","status-publish","hentry","msr-research-area-artificial-intelligence","msr-locale-en_us"],"msr_publishername":"","msr_edition":"","msr_affiliation":"","msr_published_date":"2019-11-11","msr_host":"","msr_duration":"","msr_version":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_journal":"","msr_volume":"","msr_number":"","msr_editors":"","msr_series":"","msr_issue":"","msr_organization":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_notes":"","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_original_fields_of_study":"","msr_download_urls":"","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":1,"msr_main_download":"","msr_publicationurl":"","msr_doi":"","msr_publication_uploader":[{"type":"url","viewUrl":"false","id":"false","title":"https:\/\/ieeexplore.ieee.org\/abstract\/document\/8969173","label_id":"243109","label":0}],"msr_related_uploader":"","msr_citation_count":0,"msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":0,"msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_s2_open_access":false,"msr_s2_pdf_url":null,"msr_attachments":[],"msr-author-ordering":[{"type":"text","value":"Lewen Wang","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"Weiqing Liu","user_id":39300,"rest_url":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=Weiqing Liu"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"Xiao Yang","user_id":41248,"rest_url":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=Xiao Yang"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"Jiang Bian","user_id":38481,"rest_url":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=Jiang Bian"}],"msr_impact_theme":[],"msr_research_lab":[199560],"msr_event":[],"msr_group":[],"msr_project":[746515],"publication":[],"video":[],"msr-tool":[],"msr_publication_type":"inproceedings","related_content":{"projects":[{"ID":746515,"post_title":"AI for Finance","post_name":"ai-for-finance","post_type":"msr-project","post_date":"2021-10-26 23:37:22","post_modified":"2022-06-15 00:00:20","post_status":"publish","permalink":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/project\/ai-for-finance\/","post_excerpt":"Financial industry has adopted statistical analysis for different tasks for a long time and have accumulated tremendous valuable data. 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