{"id":182333,"date":"2008-10-15T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2009-10-31T09:34:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/msr-research-item\/game-theoretic-probability-and-its-applications\/"},"modified":"2016-09-09T09:47:38","modified_gmt":"2016-09-09T16:47:38","slug":"game-theoretic-probability-and-its-applications","status":"publish","type":"msr-video","link":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/video\/game-theoretic-probability-and-its-applications\/","title":{"rendered":"Game-theoretic probability and its applications"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"asset-content\">\n<p>The game-theoretic framework, introduced by Vovk and myself in 2001 (www.probabilityandfinance.com), uses game theory instead of measure theory as a mathematical framework for probability.  Classical theorems are proven by betting strategies that multiply a player&#8217;s stake by a large factor if the theorem&#8217;s prediction fails.  In this talk, I will discuss the basic idea of game-theoretic probability and two important applications:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Defensive forecasting, (2) the game-theoretic interpretation of Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer inference.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .asset-content --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The game-theoretic framework, introduced by Vovk and myself in 2001 (www.probabilityandfinance.com), uses game theory instead of measure theory as a mathematical framework for probability. Classical theorems are proven by betting strategies that multiply a player&#8217;s stake by a large factor if the theorem&#8217;s prediction fails. In this talk, I will discuss the basic idea of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":194568,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr_hide_image_in_river":0,"footnotes":""},"research-area":[],"msr-video-type":[],"msr-locale":[268875],"msr-post-option":[],"msr-session-type":[],"msr-impact-theme":[],"msr-pillar":[],"msr-episode":[],"msr-research-theme":[],"class_list":["post-182333","msr-video","type-msr-video","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","msr-locale-en_us"],"msr_download_urls":"","msr_external_url":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/dUNFW4QcGe4","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_video_file":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-video\/182333","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-video"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/msr-video"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-video\/182333\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/194568"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=182333"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"msr-research-area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research-area?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-video-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-video-type?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-locale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-locale?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-post-option","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-post-option?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-session-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-session-type?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-impact-theme","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-impact-theme?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-pillar","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-pillar?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-episode","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-episode?post=182333"},{"taxonomy":"msr-research-theme","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-theme?post=182333"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}