{"id":235463,"date":"2015-02-18T06:00:00","date_gmt":"2015-02-18T06:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.technet.microsoft.com\/inside_microsoft_research\/2015\/02\/18\/2015-oscars-prediction-model-navigates-backlash-outrage-shifting-sentiment\/"},"modified":"2016-07-20T07:29:30","modified_gmt":"2016-07-20T14:29:30","slug":"2015-oscars-prediction-model-navigates-backlash-outrage-shifting-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.microsoft.com\/en-us\/research\/blog\/2015-oscars-prediction-model-navigates-backlash-outrage-shifting-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"2015 Oscars Prediction Model Navigates Backlash, Outrage, Shifting Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Posted by George Thomas Jr.<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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\"Selma\" director Ava DuVernay wasn't nominated, but she still could affect who wins the Oscar.<\/strong>
(Photo by Atsushi-Nishijima. ©2014 Paramount Pictures)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

(Editor's Note<\/strong>: Researcher David Rothschild is receiving significant press coverage (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>the day after the Oscars as he correctly predicted 20 of 24 awards<\/em>) <\/p>\n

While it may be difficult to name a year in which The Oscars (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a> were not embroiled in some controversy regarding nominees, this year seems particularly pronounced, with widespread criticism spanning numerous categories (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>, mainly objecting to the lack of nominations for “Selma (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>,” and, on a light-hearted note, incredulity about “The Lego Movie (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>” not receiving an Animated Feature Film nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n
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\"Birdman\" director and co-writer Alejandro González Iñárritu with cinematographer Emmanuel Lubezki. <\/strong> (Photo by Alison Rosa. ©2014 Fox Searchlight)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

To mis-paraphrase a song from that excluded film, everything is not awesome in Oscar-nomination land.<\/p>\n

Yet, as Microsoft researcher David Rothschild (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a> (@DavMicRot (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>) notes, that doesn’t mean the un-nominated can’t affect the Oscar winners in those “disputed” categories. “Absence in the category makes a difference in the distribution of votes for the remaining choices,” he says.<\/p>\n

Rothschild, an economist with Microsoft’s New York City research lab (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>, specializes in predictive analytics. His model correctly predicted 21 of 24 Oscar winners last year and 19 of 24 winners in 2013. But he says the “Selma” controversy is having a “particularly interesting” effect on this year’s predictions.<\/p>\n

“As this controversy ebbed and flowed over the last few weeks, we had to make sure to take into account how it may affect the final votes,” he says, noting some key factors that affect the prediction model:<\/p>\n