Main memories are becoming sufficiently large that most OLTP databases can be stored entirely in main memory, but this may not be the best solution. OLTP workloads typically exhibit skewed access patterns where some records are hot (frequently accessed) but many records are cold (infrequently or never accessed). It is more economical to store the coldest records on secondary storage such as flash. As a first step towards managing cold data in databases optimized for main memory we investigate how to efficiently identify hot and cold data. We propose to log record accesses – possibly only a sample to reduce overhead – and perform offline analysis to estimate record access frequencies. We present four estimation algorithms based on exponential smoothing and experimentally evaluate their efficiency and accuracy. We find that exponential smoothing produces very accurate estimates, leading to higher hit rates than the best caching techniques. Our most efficient algorithm is able to analyze a log of 1B accesses in sub-second time on a workstation-class machine.