Bayes’ Rule: The Theory That Would Not Die

February 22, 2012
Sharon McGrayne

From Microsoft spam filters to DNA decoding and the drones over bin Laden’s compound, Bayes’ rule pervades modern life. It has been used to help crack the Enigma code, hunt down Russian submarines, and solve a host of other modern day problems. Yet for most of the 20th century, opponents viewed it as subjectivity run amok. In this talk, I will recount some of the triumphs and stories behind Bayes, as it ignited one of science’s great controversies.

Speaker Details

Sharon Bertsch McGrayne writes books about the history of science and technology. Her most recent book is a history of Bayes’ rule, The Theory That Would Not Die (Yale University Press, 2011). In The New York Times Book Review, John Allen Paulos wrote that, “If you are not thinking likes a Bayesian, perhaps you should be.” McGrayne has lectured at numerous American and European universities and institutions including the German Physical Society and the American Physical Society, NIST (3 times), Argonne National Laboratory (3 times), Harvard University, the University of Heidelberg and the Max Planck Society, the Universities of Michigan and Washington, Carnegie Mellon, George Washington University, Rutgers, and others.